Did anyone really know that CJ Stroud would be far better than Bryce Young?

There have been some can’t misses as first picks - the Manning brothers, John Elway, Andrew Luck, and I’d say Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow to name a few - but I agree, they are few, and Williams is not one of them. He could easily turn out to be Winston, or even worse, Tim Couch or Jamarcus Russell. But this year, he still might be the best option. I will be pleasantly surprised if he turns out to be great. But in reality I’m expecting him to be better than Fields, but that’s a low bar. I’m not optimistic. And it may well be the eventual star QB from this year will turn out to be Daniels, Maye or even Nix and not Williams.

Worst case scenario, I have visions of the Rashaan Salaam and Curtis Enis picks, and the ultimate immature quarterback bust, Cade McNown.

Even if he busts, moving on from a QB after 2-3 years doesn't really set a team back anymore thanks to the locked in rookie contract payscale. These aren't the days of the huge guaranteed Matt Stafford deals before they play a game.

And the upside from having a top 10 QB on a rookie contract is immense.

I'm not a Bears fan at all. But dumping Fields to take another spin on the QB roulette wheel is a no-brainer.

The upside of possibly finding a top-10 QB on a rookie contract is so great, that you take one in the same offseason that you give an old veteran $100 mil guaranteed!

I kid, I kid. The Falcons are insane.

I was going to say that Stafford got a wage scale deal because Sam Bradford was the last QB to get a huge deal for being pick #1.
Stafford was drafted the year before Bradford. It seems like that was eons ago.

trading back to let someone else spin the wheel is an even bigger no brainer.

But the Bears are being bullied into making this pick.

“I think it’s a no-brainer,” a rival NFC GM told NFL Media’s Tom Pelissero of the Bears’ decision atop the draft board. “In my mind, the talent is a rare one. So, you just go for it. I don’t think it’s a debate.”

I’ve seen some commentary from scouts who think he is a once in a generation talent and others who think he is a once in a decade talent. Of course there are evaluators that aren’t as high on him as the opinions I've listed.

If he doesn’t work out you go again. They have to keep spending draft picks on top QB prospects until one sticks.

Soft.

He's fucking soft.

My concern is a lot of what I see from his highlights is similar to Fields. I watched a reel of every TD from last year and I see a lot of spectacular plays and great throws (better arm than Fields and throws from all angles), but mostly broken and extended plays. Not much dropping back and throwing in the rhythm of the play as drawn up.

Also ND set a blueprint and he was not as effective after that.

In the end he’ll be somewhere between Fields and Mahomes, and no one on earth knows yet where on that very long continuum he’ll end up. Nonetheless, I’d pick him if I were in the Bears’ position.

doesn't eliminate a lot of quarterbacks

Uncanny ability to make something spectacular out of a broken play defines the continuum as a whole. Many traditional QBs don’t fit on that continuum. Fields inability to execute within a play sets the left side, and Mahomes ability to do so sets the right. Williams belongs on that continuum but whether he will be more like Fields or Mahomes will depend on his ability to execute within a play before improvising, and is TBD.

Everyone looks at the broken plays and runs and thinks Mahomes.

But when you dig in (as some evaluators have done, and not the talking heads looking for clicks at ESPN.com types), that's great he turned a "busted" play into an 8 yard first down run, but if he had made the reads correctly, the first one was a wide ass open TD and the second would have gotten them 25.

But all people see is the run. That's the difference, Mahomes wouldn't have run on that play, he would have nailed the first read for a TD in his sleep.

He is going to be a bust, and he's going to be a huge bust. We saw how he played without an elite OL (which he had the year he won the Heisman). The Bears OL doesn't suck, but he's not going to have that protection, and he sure as shit isn't going to outrun NFL DEs.


I feel bad for Bears fans. They get the #1 pick again, and given the hype machine, they aren't even allowed to think about drafting anyone else.

Fields was run first, Williams is not.

Both can scramble and do cool things and make spectacular plays (though Mahomes is on another level). But Mahomes starts by working from within a play and does that very well - including making throws to receivers before they break, seeing the field, immediately working progressions based on what the defense shows, and throwing to open windows in a zone.

Fields can’t do any of that, which is a problem because that’s the definition of quarterbacking. One exception for Fields in the proper flow of a play is hitting an out pattern with decent timing. Nothing in the middle of the field.

So that’s how I set the continuum between the two. As understand it, you’re saying you’re confident Williams is essentially Fields redux. I’m not sure and am very concerned, but am optimistic or at least hopeful he’ll be better. Time will tell.

I don’t care nearly as much as a lot of other people about Caleb being weird and not being captain rah-rah on the sidelines. That would be nice, but if he can’t get the on-field stuff above right, none of it matters.

But the talking heads who said all of these things about Trevor Lawrence are gobbling up air time and bullying the Bears into this pick.

The only reason to do it, is it resets the FA clock on paying a QB.

But Caleb Williams will be a bust in the NFL, and the Bears will be in this same position with his rookie deal that they are with Fields.

He sucks at making reads, and that's not going to get magically fixed overnight. People who should know, know. The guys who had the mental part down but didn't have the physical gifts have been calling it out for a while now. I know everyone will love to take a crap on Chase Daniel, but he's dead on with his analysis.



I think he nails it. Williams has the arm strength, accuracy and athleticism and a ton of talent. But his progressions/reads are not great. And that's why he will fail in the NFL

NFL scouts have a hell of time projecting college QBs to the NFL but someone you know exactly what the outcome will be. The wiser thing to say is I’m not sold on his talent and leave it at that.

All of these guys at the top of the draft have the physical makeup, can "make all the throws," yadda yadda yadda.

But if a guy can't process, in real time and at NFL speed, everything that happens pre-snap and post-snap, they're simply not going to succeed. And if they can't do that in college...

I'm with you on Williams.

I went into his various combine and draft interviews expecting an immature, entitled a-hole. He's seemed pretty humble (well, not about his playing ability) and likeable.

Kinda sad isn't it.

Are you crazy?

He has a number of (at least yellow) flags people are ignoring. In his Heisman year he was passing to at least two very good receivers in a wide open offensive scheme. He had many highlight Staubach/Tarkenton scrambles that worked at the college level. Perhaps bad OL play forced hm to break off a pass and run or find more time. Perhaps he can't make quick readds.

His pouting under stress isn't a good look. Apparently he's not a bad kid, despite his fingernail ploy, but he may not be the next Bear savior.