And rightfully so. We don't want to go to the playoffs and get humiliated if we will have lost to Navy, NW, FSU, Syracuse or USC.

Any of the other four teams in the top five right now would give Brian Kelly another embarrassing smackdown to the third five.

It will depend on what goes on across the country, together with the circumstances surrounding our loss.

I do agree with you on one point -- generally speaking, an early-season loss doesn't hurt nearly as much as a late-season loss. In that regard, a loss to Michigan would not have hurt as badly as a loss to USC likely would.

Michigan was playing with a new QB and a new scheme for that QB. ND played one good half of football. Stanford is not very good this year and ND played them at home. They should be a 3 loss team right now. VA Tech was playing with a backup QB who went 0-12 in his prior season as a starter. This same team lost to Old Dominion. ND underwhelmed in almost every other game. There is Alabama undefeated and then there is ND undefeated.

basketball.

Sheesh, the negativity.

At this point?


You act as if it's irrational to have concerns about the team given the track record the past 8 and 20+ seasons.

I have been as disappointed as anyone over the travails of the team during the Kelly years (including witnessing in person the Alabama debacle in 2012.) Am I concerned that it could happen again this year ... absolutely.

But this stuff is supposed to be fun, and 7-0 is fun, and I just don't get why a fan should go out of his or her way to belittle our accomplishments and detract from what the team has done so far.

I refuse to feel guilty about enjoying this season and this team.

Was fun when we regularly went 10-1 or 11-0 and were confident in that.

I'm not saying 7-0 sucks, and I'm not saying it isn't fun, but I'm just not as invested in a 7-0 start after the last 20 years.


For me, fun is national titles.

As he passes by a 20th floor window someone asks how it's going and he replies so far so good. :)

Texas A&M (at home), Arkansas and Missouri. They are great, but have played absolutely no one.

That means they won the SEC and would have a bevy of very good wins, which would trump our 11-1

Like last year? Obviously there is a lot in play, but assuming ND loses a close one to USC to finish 11-1, it would be interesting to see how the committee would go. And regardless of any espoused reasoning, if they chose Alabama over ND, (thereby punching them a second consecutive ticket to the playoff without having even made it to their own conference championship), it would be pretty close to signaling that Alabama is an annual auto-qualifier with less than two losses.

That’s a good win by any measure.

My point was that ND played them at the best time possible. I don’t think ND will get in with a loss because of their resume unless their are other upsets along the way. No matter, I think they will lose twice.

now. Criticizing Michigan is verboten until the tOSU game.

Albeit for a different reason.

Things That Tebow Has Fucked
-SEC defenses
-The Pittsburgh Steelers
-Josh McDaniels
-Darren McFadden
-Prayer celebrations


Things That Have Fucked Tebow
-Pro cornerbacks
-Throwing mechanics
-The hairs that connect a mustache to a beard
-Pitchers who don't wait tables in the offseason

There is a lot of recency bias around the Pitt game. It is likely to be the aberration compared to Stanford and Va. Tech.

That said, it would have been nice to dominate as expected, but Narduzzi can coach defense, and it showed. They put a lot of things on the field that Book had not seen before, and it took time to adapt, but they did.

When you look at schedules, ND has played a much tougher schedule than Alabama. Other than Texas A&M, they have not played a team with a winning record yet (unless Missouri has one). Louisville is an historically bad dumpster fire with BVG in charge of the defense. Their other nonconference game to date is a buy game, and their last nonconference game is Citadel. They can't even schedule a top military school.

Yes, they will play Auburn (now a three loss team and fading- sounds like Stanford), LSU (pretty good, on a par with Michigan), Miss State (probably Va. Tech of the west -both are borderline Top 25 teams)and then Georgia or Florida in the SEC Championship game.

Alabama looks great, but they are dominating teams that they should be dominating. Nothing more than that. Pitt was the first game, post-QB switch, where the offense did not dominate the way it should have.

I want to get back to dominating. We have to play some games against teams that will be better than people give credit for, with the exception of USC who will be playing for the PAC12 championship, given the weakness of their division. With a win over Wisconsin, NW could play for the Big10 Championship.

If we win out and play Alabama in the play-off, we will do better than people think. We might even win.

It's confirmation bias. We've had a long history under Kelly of underperforming. We've done so in three games this year against crap teams (Vandy, BSU, Pitt).

The Michigan win is a great win no matter how you slice it. Stanford and Virginia Tech are both underwhelming but solid teams that we dominated. Wake Forest was a solid win against a crap opponent.

So, on the course of the season, with both quarterbacks, we've had solid wins, and crummy wins. I don't think people are just looking at the Pitt game and extrapolating that out. I think people are looking at the broad arc of the Kelly era, seeing consistencies this year with past Kelly versions, and expecting that the results (wins and losses) will start to match the performances (highly inconsistent).

Fortunately for us, our schedule is not that tough. It's possible that we could match poor performances against poor teams, and good performances against better teams the rest of the way and win out. It's also true that the remaining teams on our schedule might be better at football than Pitt, and could actually take advantage of an off-day at the office.

and running back...That simply isn’t a good way to analyze. Two people can play that game. If we are focused on quality of opponents Alabama hasn’t beat anybody worth a shit.

ND hasn't really faced a good offense yet thru 7 games.

Lots of people are fellating the defense and Lea.

I will be curious to see how they look vs Syracuse.
That might be the only good offense they face all season.
And I'm not convinced they are uber talented either. They just appear better than all other ND opponents.

ND has lucked out facing many mediocre to bad offenses this year.

strength is running he ball. Don't think anyone is going to have much success running the ball on our defense. As good as Love/Pride are, the key to beating us is by beating them

You will face a lot of bad teams over the course of a season. The amount of crap opponents you face is a large part why teams can go undefeated or have one loss. If the schedules were more balanced like the NFL you wouldn’t have multiple undefeated teams at this point of the season.

His point of trying to Pooh Pooh the Michigan win was awful. You can critique Kelly’s flaws without searching for goofy stuff. The Michigan win is a quality win plain and simple.

evaluation just like the performance at Fenway would've hurt the '15 team had we beat Stanford.

I don't think the Committee punishes teams for winning ugly nearly as heavily as we tend to think they do. Even great teams tend to have at least one of those games every year. I suppose it's possible that we have had too many if we're on the bubble, but that shouldn't be a factor if we win out.

that a 9-3 or 10-2 team will not make the playoff and will get throttled on New Years day.

They should not be in the playoffs. Our remaining strength of schedule wouldn't justify it.

(Because the fanboys will argue who shouldn’t be in to death)

If we pick up a loss - in addition to evidence from all the games currently played by contending teams (including us) - it’s pretty clear that we couldn’t compete in the playoffs.

We’re undefeated and don’t even look like we can compete. A loss is not going to improve that.

Short of a close loss to USC, we should drop like rocks if we were to lose to any other team on our schedule.

If we remain undefeated we can keep that hope. There could be a magic, destiny, and team belief that would overcome a significant gap in talent, experience, coaching, coaching, and coaching.

If we don’t...it really does become academic whether or not we’d have any chance against the other 3 teams that earn their way in. Maybe we could get a really favorable semifinal matchup but there’s going to be at least 2 of the 3 in the tourney that will beat us 2012 style. I have no interest in going through that again just so we can say we made the playoffs. Give me something the program can build off of.

got a good fight from Minnesota. I saw parts of the second half and but for a short missed FG by Minn., the game would have been 20-17 early 4th Quarter. I know that Ohio State could have been playing down ( ala ND versus Pitt), but Minnesota moved the ball. Since Bosa left, their defense is not scary good. Still five games left, so who knows what team we will have come November.

I'm not arguing that we wouldnt get our ass kicked by Bama (everyone does) and maybe OSU. But if Clemson can recover from a loss against a terrible Syracuse team last year (they were back to #1 before they even played the ACC chsmp game), why couldn't we be afforded the same opportunity against say Northwestern or something?

ND...think 1989 and 1993. The talking heads at the WWL are already discounting our strength of schedule. They are not acknowledging ND wins against UM, Stanford or VT, while heaping tons of praise on Bama's wins vs Arkansas State, LA-Lafayette, and soon to be The Citadel. Four of seven wins for ND have gone deep into 4th quarter or were ugly games 3 of which were against inferior talented teams. If ND goes undefeated, but has more squeakers in the remaining 5 games it may not make it into the playoff.

no one on ESPN is giving Bama props for beating Arkansas St. ND has plenty of flaws and isn't above being criticized.

An undefeated ND team will make the playoff as at least a 3 seed if not higher.

An undefeated ND won't get left out.

ND has flaws. A loss this late in the season, given the quality of the schedule left will likely knock us out of playoff contention ... that seems fair and isn't a product of ESPN being out to get us.

We are talking late October or November. With no quality games left to prove our selves after .

And that's only if USC has risen back up to at least top-20 in the polls.

(If there are any more games where our offense looks like it did against Pitt, it might not matter how good USC is. The "eye test" would kill us.)

538 gives Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State better than a 99% chance of going to the playoff if they win out.

They give NC State a 98% chance.
But Notre Dame only a 91% chance.


They must have some weird assumption about conference membership built into their model.

Edit. Looking at their methodology, it's probably that ND is being penalized (inadvertently or not) in this scenario for not having a conference championship. I think that's a flaw in the model, at least in the case of ND being undefeated. In the real world that would probably only factor into the committee's thinking if they were deciding between a one-loss ND and some other one-loss team.

Bosa is gone. The importance of his loss can't be overstated. Penn State, as much as it hurts me to admit this, whipped them up and down the field for 58 and a half minutes. I certainly don't think Penn State is a better team than Notre Dame.

I'm not saying it would be an Irish win, but I don't think it would be a walk in the park for them.

Alabama... yeah, lights out, Irish.

of my mouth. Alabama is the class of all College football.

of my mouth. Alabama is the class of all College football.

With weeks to prepare.


OSU would throttle us.

Given extra time to prepare, great coaches tend to be really hard to beat. Meyer and Saban are great coaches. Brian Kelly is not a great coach. Even if the talent is similar (and I'm not sure it is if we're talking about impact players), the coaching gap is so pronounced that it's hard to imagine ND keeping up for long.

Frankly, that's why we should care as much about our seed as we do about just getting in to the playoffs. If you're going to get one of these guys, it's much easier in round 2 of the playoffs, because they won't have a month to pick you apart. I'd prefer to play Clemson in Round 1 and take my chances with Bama and/or OSU in Round 2.

Consider this: In the last three years, Bama is 3-0 in Round 1, and has won by an average score of 29-4. In Round 2, Bama is 2-1, with an average score of 35-31.

Saban with a month to prepare is almost impossible to defeat.

ND would be at a distinct disadvantage in preparation.

But I just don't see OSU as world-beaters. There's a certain Notre Dame-esque tendency to play to their lesser talented opponents in this year's Ohio State. As we well know, that can spell trouble against teams with individual talent at spots across the field.

Meyer can’t scheme those problems away with extra prep.

Hell, look at the secondaries we've played against.

I know they have problems, but on the whole, their team matches up very well against ours. Very very well in fact.

it was the O-line and Book's lack of recognition of what the Defense was doing.

And who do you think has a better DL and LB group, Pitt or OSU?

I was just responding to the prior post that suggested that OSU has secondary issues.

Yes, they do, but their defense is world's better than Pitt, as is their secondary, and I assure you, they would play us the same way Pitt did, with press coverage and daring us to beat them over the top, even without Bosa. Moreover, they are getting a bunch of previously injured players on D back this week (except Bosa, who is done and heading to the NFL).

We agree re: OSU. We also haven't played a QB anywhere near Haskins' level this year.

Late season losses have always been much worse in college football than early season losses. At this point in the season for ND to make it they can’t afford a loss. Just pray that if they tun the table they don’t get to play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl again. It will be just as ugly as the last time.

That may be possible due to the verb tense used in this thread.

And will be spelled "duz".

First, I don't think timing of loss really matters much anymore. Alabama lost their last game of the year last year and still made it.

We pretty much know that an 11-1 ND is getting in over any Pac 12 team, with the possible exception of Oregon if it doesn't lose the rest of the year. But for simplicity sake, I think it's safe to assume 11-1 ND is in over any Pac 12 team (especially if the loss isn't to USC, because that further hurts Pac 12 SOS/reputation).

From the Big Ten, at most, one of Ohio State or Michigan would get in over 11-1 ND. I don't see a way both would. Obviously, if Michigan loses again, they have no shot of being ahead of 11-1 ND. If a 1-loss Michigan beats Ohio State (and therefore wins the division), that means Ohio State's best win (Penn State) would have 3 losses (PSU already has two and would by default have another to Michigan in this hypothetical). I don't think the committee would have 11-1 OSU over 11-1 ND, who would have a win over a 12-1 Michigan. And it's very possible 11-1 ND would be ahead of both Michigan and OSU if OSU doesn't win the division, even if Michigan wins the conference, because we beat Michigan H2H. But we'll be conservative and say the Big Ten gets one in over 11-1 ND. (If, somehow, a 12-1 Iowa wins the Big Ten over previously-undefeated Ohio State, that could make things interesting and possibly get both of them in the playoff. But I'd be stunned if that happens.)

Only one ACC team (the winner of Clemson-NC State) has a realistic chance of being ahead of 11-1 ND, in my opinion, especially if Clemson is the winner. If Clemson beats NC State, NC State won't be able to finish better than 9-1 against FBS opponents since they played an FCS team and their game against West Virginia was canceled. They very likely would finish with no ranked wins. It'd be virtually a certainty 11-1 ND would be ahead of a 1-loss NC State. If NC State beats Clemson this weekend and wins the conference, it's possible 11-1 Clemson could get the nod over 11-1 ND, but their schedule is weak, and I think Texas A&M (their best win) will falter a few more times down the stretch hurting their SOS. Regardless, I don't see NC State winning this weekend in Death Valley, anyway. We'll say, at most, one ACC team (Clemson) over 11-1 ND.

I think it's fair to guess though that there would be 0 Pac 12 teams, 1 Big Ten team and 1 ACC team over 11-1 ND. So two spots.

Where it gets interesting is the SEC and Big 12. If Alabama goes undefeated (or wins the SEC with one loss), the SEC would almost certainly get only get one spot. But if Alabama loses to LSU (who ends up winning the Division) or UGA/UF in the SEC Championship and Bama finishes with only one loss, the SEC could get both the SEC Champ and 1-loss Bama in the playoff.

In the Big 12, at most, only one team will finish with one loss. But I think there's a pretty good chance that team would finish ahead of 11-1 ND. Still, it's also a decent chance there is no Big 12 team that finishes with only one loss. WVU, Texas and Oklahoma all already have a loss. West Virginia still plays Texas and Oklahoma. Besides hoping for upsets, of course, hopefully West Virginia would beat Texas, Oklahoma would beat West Virginia and Texas would beat Oklahoma again in the Big 12 championship game. But there's also good likelihood of upsets occurring.

Finally, it'd be nice to have UCF lose. I don't think UCF would get in over 11-1 ND, but best to not even have that be an option.

tl;dr- 11-1 ND would probably be in over all Pac 12 and possibly behind no more than 1 ACC and 1 Big Ten. So if Alabama wins the SEC (or loses two games) and WVU, Texas and Oklahoma all lose one more game, 11-1 ND should be in. But if even one of those things don't happen (either Bama finishes with one loss and doesn't win the SEC OR the Big 12 champ has only one loss), it's hard to see 11-1 ND getting in, barring the ACC Champ having two losses or Michigan winning the Big Ten and the committee picking 11-1 ND over Michigan due to H2H.

tl;dr (part 2) - go 12-0 and don't worry about any of this.

placing an 11-1 ND ahead of an 11-1 Ohio St or Clemson. Regardless of what the "official" selection criteria may be, these committee members know that both these teams have beaten Alabama to win championships in recent years. When in doubt, they'll err on the side of selecting the program that has been generally stronger over multiple years. And I can't say I disagree. That's what they did in 2014 when they selected Ohio St over TCU & Baylor, and that decision was validated when Ohio St went on to win the title.

The simplest way for 11-1 ND to make it would be:
Alabama, OSU, and Clemson win out; Oregon loses to somebody; Big 12 winner has 2 losses.

Think the likelihood goes down to 10%.

An undefeated major school can’t be kept out. The voters wouldn’t dare. The legitimacy of the whole “system” would be sharply in question.

If ND loses from here on out, it will have been to an unranked or barely ranked team (USC). The Greek Chorus will be heard far and wide: “They haven’t played anybody! OK, maybe they played one somebody and they only won by 7 at home! They didn’t have to play a conference champ!” The voters can do 2 SEC, 1 true ACC, 1 B1G and it will look fine.

Michigan will make the playoff over ND

Michigan lost its first game. FSU had lost in November. FSU did end the season beating #7 Florida @ Florida, but I'd assume if the scenario occurred OSU would be ranked higher than #7 (and that game is @ OSU.

I think the only way is if that loss is to a highly ranked opponent at the beginning of the season, like Georgia last year.

Basically it depends on what your rank was prior to the loss, who you lost to, and by how much.

ND margin for error is very, very slim. If we climb to 1 or 2 and lose by 1 or 2 to Sc, than maybe.