Random thoughts
by Wass (2023-01-26 21:41:03)

I'll try this again. My first attempt was somehow blown out when I had to set my phone down and answer the door. Chemo meds that I have to sign for because it is a "black box" drug. Wonderful stuff, derived from one of the most infamous drugs from the late 50s/early 60s. But that's another story. The post was too wordy anyway, so I'll break this one up into two (equally wordy) posts.

Transfer portal - I have to admit, it wasn't as chaotic as I expected and not nearly as chaotic as some had predicted. On YouTuber had predicted that hundreds of players would jump in to test the NIL waters. Turns out, that didn't happen and I see the guy who predicted it as a click bait hack. Still, a lot of players jumped in and a lot are still looking for a home. Depending on what you believe somewhere between 52% and 64% found a landing spot. The sites that keep up on this remind me of the early days of recruiting on the internet - biased opinions from the so-called recruiting gurus like Tom Lemming. I found two of the major sites, 247 and On3, to be rather sloppy in keeping tract of things. There are guys that have long since found a new place still listed as available while not even listing others. 0n3 seems to be a bit better but by no means perfect. I also question their rankings of players. Who exact is making thar call? I was surprised to see 3 Stanford O-linemen as highly ranked transfers. Was the ND game the only Stanford game these "experts" watched? Stanford's OL was awful the rest of the year. Sure, there were injuries, but that doesn't excuse the horrid play. Some teams completely revamped their rosters. Colorado took something like 24 transfers so far and 16 incoming freshman recruits, nearly half the roster spots. Relatively few current Colorado players have jumped in, so they have a lot of "roster pruning" to do. Arizona State has 26 transfers coming in, but they lost a lot to the portal. I wonder if we aren't seeing a lot of "take from Peter to give to Paul" at some places. Sure, they may have brought in a bunch of new players, but if you lost a ton of players, are your really that much better? Not every player is a big time transfer like Caleb Williams. Many are players who lost in the roster at their current school looking for a fresh start. Schools taking the most players from the portal were usually those with new HCs, though some schools seem to be relying on it, such as USC and LSU. I think that is a bit of a gamble because the talent in the portal varies from year to year. There are plenty of players now in part because of the COVID year, but that won't last forever. Couple that with the "JT Daniels" rule that will limit non-graduates to 1 transfer without penalty of sitting out a year (we'll see how long that lasts!), and the numbers will fall a bit, hurting schools who look to fill positions with transfers. It could help in recruiting for some schools, in that you could tell a recruit that going to such a school will mean you'll have to wait a couple years to see the field because that coach uses transfers to find starters and that the recruit might find themselves in the portal after a couple of years. There are schools that lost a ton of players but took few in the portal, like A&M. They lost nearly a third of their roster to the portal, many of them younger players. Sure, they still have a lot of talent and brought in a bunch of quality recruits, but you can't replace that year in and year out. Then there are the schools who lost kids to the portal and didn't care, like Alabama. That's how they operate. The portal was tailored to Nick Saban's method of recruiting. Get in as many highly ranked recruits as possible (and accuse anyone who gets a more highly rated class of cheating), and push out anyone who doesn't produce after a year or two. As for ND, they filled some roster holes, with the exception of a big DT, but they are also 9 over the limit for grants. More on that in a later post. I am glad they took Hartman, but I am not as excited as most. ND needed to take a QB, and he is likely to start. But I am more cautious, along the lines of what Mike Goolsby has said. He's a 6th year player who was projected as a late round draft pick (7th is what I read, for what that's worth). ND risks losing younger QBs to the portal and may find themselves looking for a starting QB out of the portal next year. Unlike JT Daniels, Hartman has been very productive at Wake and I am confident he will fit in at ND. ND is done for now in the portal as picking are pretty slim at most positions, especially along the OL. There are some good players left, but ND will have to wait until the May portal opens to find a big DT if and when one enters then. I would shy away from a player who has transferred more than one. They are likely a bit of a head case and may be a detriment to the team. I like the "JT Daniels" rule but I doubt it will last. I am also surprised at home many players went to a team in conference. It wasn't that long ago where that was quite difficult.

NIL - I stated this before, but it's part of the game now. There seem to be few rules regulating it with the NCAA being useless in policing it. I read where a running back from Texas got a Lamborghini Truck out of it. That's crazy to me. Then there is the QB recruit, Jaden Rashada, who backed out of his LOI because of NIL issues. I'm sure someone will pick him up, but how many schools are willing to shell out lots of NIL money (and "gifts") for an incoming freshman who may not pan out? Every school has different "rules" for handing out NIL money. It really is the wild west for that right now. Will it end up being those schools with the wealthiest donors always have to best players? It doesn't guarantee the players will stick around. Look at A&M and Oregon. They have plenty of NIL money yet lots of players left. And who is really pulling the strings with it? It is supposed to he the coaches, but it cab open the door to wealthy alumni meddling in things. Listen to what we have to say or we'll cut your money off. Unlikely? Sure. But is it possible? Did anyone think a 9th year senior with another year of eligibility would ever be possible? I was going to say something disparaging about SMU and USC, but I'm rambling at this point. As for ND, they k ow full well they have to play the game with NIL money if they want to compete. I am not sure how they figure who gets what, but I do wish there was a more universal equation that everyone had to follow. I find the way it is handled now to he rather odd. Correct me if I am wrong, but the whole NIL thing was supposed to compensate a player for a university profiting using their name, image, and likeness. This isn't what is going on. The money comes from a 3rd party and the university just keeps the profits. Further, it is just a paycheck that is arbitrary. Recruits can secure a massive NIL paycheck when they sign their LOI yet may never pan out. Can a player have their NIL money yanked out from under them when they don't pan out in an effort to force them out? I am asking because I don't know if they can do that. At any rate, I think we are slowly going to a system where the players are university employees rather than student-athletes. And that's not good.

That's all for now. You're all lucky chemo fog is a real thing because I forgot a lot of points! I will post some thoughts on "roster pruning" and the roster situation as a whole, but I have went on way too long. Please correct and clarify things regarding NIL and the portal. I'm still learning it (I had quite a long hiatus) and want to understand how they work. Sorry about the typos in advance.

-Wass


a few brief thoughts
by jt  (2023-01-27 17:09:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

1) You aren't even getting the tip of the iceberg on the roster turnover. As an example, New Mexico announced 18 transfers in just yesterday, and New Mexico St signed 29 in Dec and anticipates another 25 or so next week. Complete roster turnover. Colorado St lost about 30 kids and anticipates replacing at least that many; they are following the Notre Dame lead and using the new coaching staff exemption to lose a whole bunch of guys. These are just a few examples; lower level FBS/group of 5 schools are going to have about 50% turnover each year in many cases. Guys moving up, guys moving down for playing time, guys following a coach, etc.

2) Yeah, the Stanford OL were pretty good. Nugent would have really helped us inside. Miller is a really good player.

3) Not sure what you're referring to w/r/t Colorado; they lost a ton of guys in the portal and jettisoned most of their verbal commitments.


Just going by...
by Wass  (2023-01-27 17:53:21)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

...the info on 247 and On3 regarding Colorado. They have a list of their recruiting class (I think it was 16), but I know those jumping into the portal is incomplete. Like I said, both sites were incomplete. As to point 1, I completely agree but my post was far too long as it was and wanted to give a few specific examples. Some schools had some serious overhauls in their rosters. I am not sure how you manage such chaos. How do you get a team to gel with a whole new roster every year? I do feel bad for the Group of 5 schools. They will get their best players poached every year. On the flip side, they may be able to get some decent players "left over" in the portal when the power 5 teams are done. I will post more on "roster pruning" later. Hint - while there may be circumstances justifying it, I'm not for it.


247 is useless *
by jt  (2023-01-27 22:15:57)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


They are bad...
by Wass  (2023-01-27 22:27:04)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

...no argument there. For a board that rates players and then rates school's portal "classes", they do a terrible job. On3 is marginally better but still no very good. Like I said, it reminds me of the early days of internet recruiting in the early 90s. Rumors abound and ranking biased by the "pundit's" favorite school/conference in order to get people to call hotlines with the latest info. Unfortunately, with the portal, most of us are stuck with what little is out there.


as to the group of 5 schools
by jt  (2023-01-28 00:33:15)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

yes, it is constant turnover. 50-70% roster reconstruction annually.

Truthfully, for a high school senior it is better to take an FCS offer than go to group of 5 at this point in time; you can get playing time at an FCS and determine if you can move up; if you can, those same group of 5 schools (or even power 5) are available. But some of these FCS programs are actually better; South Dakota, SDSU, North Dakota, NDSU, Sac State, etc. would win most group of 5 conferences easily.

If your goal is to play good football in a winning environment (and not necessarily on Wed night), group of 5 is not the way to go.


Group of 5
by Wass  (2023-01-28 09:26:59)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I would submit that the Group of 5 conferences may be better off dropping down a level. Let's face it, realistically, even with the expansion of the playoffs, schools in these conferences have little chance to make in, unless one becomes the darling of ESPN. If they drop a level, they have a chance to play for a title at that level. As things stand now, the best they can do is a lousy bowl game to fill time for ESPN. Next season, many of these teams will be forced into weekday games to fill time for ESPN. This doesn't help the players at all. They will miss two, maybe three, days of class when they travel. And I can't see where playing weekday games will help recruiting. The Power 5 teams usually use the Group of 5 teams as cannon fodder to pad their schedules. Sure, we can point to some notable upsets, but most of the time, they are easy wins foe the Power 5. Things have really changed quickly in the past few years, and I suspect there will be even more changes, only not for the better of the athlete or the sport.


Too much money involved to drop down
by jt  (2023-01-28 13:39:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Conference usa teams getting a million dollars each to play weekdays next fall. They don't give a FUCK about the student ath-huh-letes who are missing school. Not even one little teenie tiny fuck. They're not dropping down. And most wouldn't have a chance to compete for a title in the fcs. Boise state and Liberty are about it.


Believe me...
by Wass  (2023-01-28 15:42:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

...I am well aware of that. My dad played at a MAC and was part of a "small college NC" team. He has long said they should drop down a level, but they stay where they are at because of the money. Back in the 80s, I thought they should stay where they were at mainly because things were different back then. They weren't playing Power 5 conference (though that ESPN speak term wasn't around back then) teams as much (once a year, sometimes not at all) and they weren't playing weekday games constantly. Now they play Power 5 teams regularly, clearly for the money, and play on weekdays regularly, clearly for the ESPN TV money. If the administration cared, they would drop down. Getting beat up by teams thar have far better talent is no fun and being forced to play on weekdays simply to fill time on ESPN is an insult. But mo ey talks. Personally, I think Power 5 teams playing Group of 5 teams should be penalized in the rankings. Instead, ESPN and those who have a say in the ranking love it when the Power 5 school runs up the score on the nearly hapless Group of 5 school. They are rewarded for their "efforts". As I said elsewhere, I hate the direction college sports are headed. I would hope some sanity will prevail down the road, but I expect it to get worse, not better. Greed is more important than anything now.


and the truth of the matter is
by jt  (2023-01-28 17:41:50)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

there are many FCS schools that are much more competitive than some group of 5 schools, and the administration is behind the program and supportive of the athletes.

Not the case at many group of 5 schools, where the administration sees the program and the athletes as a necessary evil or a means to an end, similar to the way a John thinks of a hooker.


I think that is the case...
by Wass  (2023-01-28 18:44:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

...case with the MAC. Their admonistrations don't care about the players. They care about the money. But I think the MAC would benefit going to the FCS. Just my opinion. In any event, NIL money and the transfer portal definitely benefit the Power 5 schools the most. They can poach all the best players from the Group of 5 schools with NIL money and the way the transfer portal is set up makes it easier for such players to make the jump. I know you didn't like my scenario of NIL donors pulling strings on players, and I admit is was an unlikely thing to happen, but we can both think of other scenarios that can screw over the athletes. Sadly, right now, the NCAA has little power and gumption to do anything about the way things are heading.


oh, they would benefit
by jt  (2023-01-29 02:14:56)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

some of those FCS schools would kill them, however. NDSU and UND are legit. Same with Montana and Montana State, and there are several others (SEMO, UT-Martin, Sac State).

Truth is, I know several kids in the 25 and 26 classes and we've talked about it already; if you want to go somewhere where you'll grow as an athlete, get good coaching, and play against good competition on Saturday (and not Tues and Wed), you're much better off in FCS. There are some real high level programs with very good coaching out there.

MAC and Conference USA are just whoring their athletes out there and don't give a fuck.


I won't argue...
by Wass  (2023-01-29 10:05:20)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

...that there are some very good FCS teams who would handle teams in the MAC and C-USA. I just think it's better than playing on weekdays and when they aren't playing such days, they are getting smoked by an SEC or B1G team. Sure, an upset occasionally happens, but that isn't the point. I think the difference in talent will widen the gulf in talent between Power 5 and Group of 5 talent as well. Now, I am not saying this will convince the powers that be in the Group of 5 conferences to make a move to the FCS, but it sure would be a legit excuse to make such a move. It's the money (TV money and money they get from the Power 5 team they are playing) that will keep the status quo.


Hang in there Wass! *
by Hickster  (2023-01-27 13:09:14)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Praying for all the best for you *
by ndbob79  (2023-01-27 09:01:22)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Hoping and praying for the best possible outcome for you *
by Camarillo Brillo  (2023-01-27 07:03:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Godspeed, sir *
by Stonebreaker9  (2023-01-26 23:26:21)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Hope you’re holding up okay. *
by Giggity_Giggity  (2023-01-26 22:47:20)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


F**k Revlimid pricing.
by The Holtz Room  (2023-01-26 21:57:49)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

It’s such bullshit they tweaked Thalidomide and set up patent walls to price gouge multiple myeloma patients.

I hope you are doing well Wass. You’re in my prayers.


Oddly...
by Wass  (2023-01-26 23:40:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

...of all the meds I was on for chemo, the Revlamid had the least side effects. I hated being in the dex. That really beats you up. The Velcade was rough too. It gave me some seriously painful neuropathy and it was difficult to walk at times. But the Malphalan they gave me for the stem cell transplant was brutal. One dose and I was out of action for weeks.


Dad did pretty well on Revlimid as well.
by The Holtz Room  (2023-01-26 23:51:35)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

When his light chains went up, they upped the dosage and that beat up on his kidneys.

After that, he went into the trials.


Sounds like your dad...
by Wass  (2023-01-27 07:53:27)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

...had the same type of myeloma I have. Mine is fairly rare, in that it is caused by the kappa light chain, not the lambda light chain, which is more common and more dangerous. The heavy chains can also cause myeloma as well. I am just hoping the stem cell transplant worked (I don't want to go through that again) and I stay in remission long enough for medical advances to find another way to beat it down. My next oncology appointment is coming up and I am a bit concerned about some things that don't seem quite right.


Someone should really do something about that.
by Moff  (2023-01-26 22:24:37)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Oh wait, we are …. ;)


I approve of this message . . . *
by other_guy  (2023-01-27 14:52:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


👍 *
by The Holtz Room  (2023-01-26 22:30:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post